In the coming year, it is likely that there will be open war between Legacy and various new Eastern powers.
What is happening?
To understand this special report, you may find it useful to get additional context on what is happening in the east of New Eden at the moment. You can consult previous Eastern Conflict Observatories to get up to date information.
If you would like a longer-term perspective, reaching back to July 2017, Jin’taan has produced a series of informative videos.
Finishing off the DRF
The Drone Regions Federation is finished as an independent actor in New Eden, at least for now. Its rental empire is extinct. SOLAR FLEET, a principal constituent, is collapsing. The DRF has been compressed to effectively XIX, locked into Insmother.
Triumvirate <TRI>, previously removed from Insmother by the DRF, has returned to the region. It is waging a successful war to take it back. Triumvirate is doing so with assistance from the Holy League, and from Fraternity..
It is possible that the famed Russian tenacity will return. However, it will do so with limited options for ISK. Moreover, NER has been told by Fafer that XIX took the ‘conscious decision not to develop supercapital force.’ We know that XIX has supercapitals – but they seem to lack strategic depth. A single primary defeat could be shattering.
It would be unwise to dismiss XIX entirely. The fight to remove it from Insmother will be a messy one, but the forces of TRI and the Holy League have numbers parity and a skill-based advantage. The pressure on XIX will only increase as the SOLAR campaign is wrapped up by the Holy League. Barra, a spokesperson for the Holy League, confirmed that they would ‘help tri with xix if they need it,’ once SOLAR is defeated. With that theatre winding down, XIX is in dire straits.
If Legacy were to come to its relief, it might survive. However, Legacy is fighting elsewhere, in Providence. Moreover, the Fraternity-led Winter Coalition has re-targeted onto XIX. Therefore, it seems likely that XIX – already on the back-foot – will be either eliminated entirely or at least massively reduced in the coming months.
Winter is Coming
While DRF has been disintegrating, the Winter Coalition has been fighting with Legacy. Though most of these engagements were lopsidedly in favor of Legacy, the Winter Coalition is swiftly learning. With Legacy going into Providence, and Winter Coalition turning against XIX, they placed the conflict on pause.
However, this should not be taken to suggest that Winter/Legacy hostilities are at an end. In fact, leaks from the FRAT State of the Alliance address, the following point was raised:
any major fight we got out gunned by super caps.
not enought cap pilots, don;t have a good cap cache.
Given that FRT, and Winter Coalition more generally, are known to be building their capacity, this does not seem to indicate a peaceful settlement with Legacy. Instead, it suggests a temporary break in hostilities before round two.
Legacy appears to agree. In a State of the Coalition meeting on the 12th of April, progodlegend announced a campaign into Providence. The announcement was not breaking news, and there is a perfectly sensible economic rationale for it.
What is more interesting, however, is that PGL couched it concerning working the kinks out of Legacy’s campaign machine. Some different problems were brought up for resolution, including doctrines and FC communication. The fact that they are addressing these problems suggests that Legacy is planning serious warfare in the coming months, and Winter Coalition, being an aggressive and capable adversary on Legacy’s border, is the apparent target.
An Oncoming Storm
So that is the current situation in the East. The DRF has been taken apart by a disparate collection of factions. Winter Coalition and Legacy are preparing for battle.
In a typical situation, it is quite likely that this would amount to little. Non-invasion pacts inked, rental agreements checked – in other words, business as usual.
This is not a normal situation.
It is the stated position of the Holy League, from Barra, that ‘we will not look for nips or to be so-called friends with ppl. If anything, we will look to piss ppl off so they come take this space off us.’ This sentiment is echoed by many in Winter Coalition, who initially formed from Serenity (the Chinese server where nullsec is controlled by a single entity) refugees. Their interest in so-called blue donuts is decidedly minimal.
It is possible that the Holy League and Winter Coalition will turn on each other and Triumvirate. However, these organizations have fought side by side for some months. It strikes NER as implausible that these bonds will suddenly break while Legacy – which has opposed all three groups – remains uncontested.
Legacy has the numbers and capacity to roll over any one group within the united crusade against the DRF. Taking on the combat veterans of the Holy League and Triumvirate, along with the growing Winter Coalition empire, is chancy.
Given that many of these potential enemies tend to be impermeable to diplomacy and fond of preemptive strikes, it is a chance they may well have to take.
So what does this all mean?
NER is wary of absolutely definitive statements –, especially about the future. However, all evidence and testimony point to a growing geopolitical confrontation in the East. The priorities of some of the combatants minimize the possibility of a diplomatic solution. Actions and statements from both sides point towards conflict. The exact answers elude NER at this time, but the broad sweep is clear. Legacy and the eastern states are on the road to war.
NER will keep you updated as the situation progresses.