Eve mimics reality in many ways. Markets are created through the process of exchange, creating a supply and demand for goods and services. These markets can be altered by a variety of events ranging from shortages to policy implementation from different bodies of power. There are some events that many players don’t see often happen in the Eve universe. In Eve, just like in the real world, the scarcity of resources is one of the most significant concerns during wartime. In spite of the fact many players in Eve live in a world where infinite ISK and Rorquals are blotting out the sun, markets were in decline, with tritanium and other common minerals hitting an all-time low price.
War changes many aspects of Eve, however, policy implementation is stronger at directly creating change. For example, earlier this month The Mittani ordered all ore from Delve to stay in Delve: sell to local builders, Keep the ore in Delve, Selling to Jita is Selling to the enemy. While minerals and ore are mined around the universe, Delve is responsible for producing trillions of isk over the course of a given month. When you are producing resources at that kind of level, any changes in how it is handled will have lasting impacts on markets.
It’s hard to measure a full effect on the market, but in viewing compressed ores coming from null markets, there is a telling story in the number of compressed ores available on the market. The basics of supply and demand dictate that a decrease in amount should increase the price. This is something we have seen across shipped ores.
This “tale of two markets” tells the story. To save some levels of sanity, we are going to look at a single item across the Jita and 1DQ1-A (Delve) markets. Below is the Compressed Spodumain for Jita. First, look at the price rise over a month signaling an issue in demand increase, at least until August, when the larger titan fights started to affect the demand. Then the hammer dropped on the supply side with a full embargo from Delve; with the sizeable missing sum of supplies, it will be interesting to see where this goes in coming weeks.
1DQ shows a different story. It’s important to note the scale on the below chart is the same for the volume of ore on the market. The vital thing to see here is the supply. Despite sales quantity, supply is still up from normal. This is likely due to many things such as from stockpiles of miners and producers offloading, and the lack of exports. But we already see a consistent price drop at a fast pace. It’s likely the market rebound here that will have an opening to make a nice profit in relatively short timeframes. To do this buy some very cheap ore and selloff at higher prices when the market stabilizes after an embargo is lifted. This may take a month or so to come through but as far as short-term investments go the worst that happens is you move it to jita and still make a killing in the value difference. Til then, Delve maintains its remarkable ability to be considered an industrialists dreamland with the lowest cost ore in the game.
This is only the start of the war hitting the market and the next few weeks will make or break the market for thousands across Eve, as nullsec powers attempt to rebuild from their losses. Let’s remember the prices of these ores affect mineral prices after refining. This could and should cause a rise in prices across Eve.
The story here is that the market is as much of a battleground as in the space we fight. The embargo seems to be working despite the Imperium’s lack of tools to actually prevent its members from shipping to Jita making it important to note the effect the Imperium has on the marketplace.
This has been the kick-off of the ISK Neutral series discussing market changes, and speculation on further market action. For more on the ISK Neutral series, stay tuned to New Eden Report.