Brokering peace during wartime is a challenging endeavor. For more details on that process, here is a link to Aryth’s post to INN on the challenges of the politics and the sequence of events to broker the deal. Politics aside, lets not revel in the complexities of interpersonal conduct. Instead, let’s take a look at the details, valuation of items, and market impacts of the deal and the long-term recovery.
To start, here are the terms of the deal:
“GOTG pays total of 40 faction fortizar equivalents Within 72 hours of agreement, a payment of 10 faction fortizar equivalents or 500 Billion ISK which will be refunded when the 10 Faction Forts are delivered as the first payment to a highsec station with highsec only routes to Amarr. Within 10 days of agreement, all 5 Moreau+30 other faction fortizars must be delivered to a to a highsec station with highsec only routes to Amarr. For the purposes of this agreement Moreau fortizars count as 2 faction forizars. Example: 5 Moreaus and 30 other faction forts would satisfy this payment agreement.”
There is a lot to unpack here so let’s start with the valuation. With a weak market in faction fortizars this really helps set the price of the market as the largest transfer of faction fortizars to date.
“10 Faction Fortizars or 500 Billion isk.”
Quick math, that means the new market values of the average Faction fortizar at 50 Billion ISK. This is a ransomed price so an incentive is there to be punitive. However, the following condition needs to be accounted for, in terms of costing the Imperium very real value.
“The Imperium will withdraw main fleet, SIGs/squads, and cloaky campers from the northern territories*”
Having calculated the cost of moving a single fleet of Faxes from Pure Blind to Delve is not small, and having personally moved a capital cache a small alliance would be jealous of, I can tell you the sheer volume of capitals requiring a move back to delve is colossal. It will take both a while to complete and cost a large amount in fuel. This likely counterbalances that punitive cost but leaves the number in an inflated state.
Let’s take a step further as the contract also stipulates the following which alters the valuation of a specific faction fortizar far above that of its counterparts.
“For the purposes of this agreement ‘Moreau’ fortizars count as 2 faction forizars. Example: 5 ‘Moreau’ and 30 other faction forts would satisfy this payment agreement.”
This values the ‘Moreau’ Fortizar at 100 billion ISK of which is actually 50 billion less than the current market value. This devalues some alliances assets significantly but more, importantly, sets a more firm market price than previously seen.
All told, this values the total deal at roughly 2 Trillion in assets transferred for a 6-month peacetime. This really is a great deal for both sides.
The unintended consequence of this deal effectively changes the perceived values of all faction fortizars across Eve in a meaningful way.
Alternate changes to the market expected in the coming months include the rebuilding of the multi-region area in the north, which should put excess strain on the PI markets. Trillions of ISK worth of PI (for structure builds) and salvage (for rigs) are now needed to replace the lost structures numbering in the hundreds. Now is the time for investment in these markets.
Diving deeper into the damages
A source within the Imperium has the following to say about the loss numbers from the perspective of the Imperium. We will assume relative accuracy (keeping in mind some variation might occur) as the source has kept an extremely detailed account of the fighting in the north.
- Fortizar: 47 (8 flipped and destroyed by hostiles)
- Faction Fortizars: 6 (+1 stolen) (3 destroyed by hostiles)
- Tatara: 6
- Azbel: 6
- Sotiyo: 3
- Athanor: 73 (9 flipped and destroyed by hostiles)
- Astrahus: 35
- Raitaru: 19
- Keepstar: 10 (+1 stolen) (+2 relocated)
In the interest of fairness and equality when measuring the damages here, we are assuming a reconstruction effort to fortify the north to at least the previous level. The north has the ability and economic power to make this a reality. Not counting keepstars, the above damages total out in the 1.5 to 1.7 trillion range depending on going rates in various markets for Sotiyos and other larger structures. Localized buybacks under Jita value cause this price discrepancy, which could bring the total rebuild costs down. Counting the ten Keepstars listed above, the valuation of 250 to 300 billion per Keepstar is a fair value for estimating purposes. This brings the ten keepstars deaths to a total 2.6 trillion (lowest rates) and adding in the other structure losses we are at a value of roughly 4 trillion, give or take a few hundred billion, in market forces for the structures and assuming best prices. To be fair, not one single alliance is paying for this, and the purpose of this is to evaluate the potential impact on the PI and salvage markets assuming an expedited fortification of the north.
For rebuilding purposes, replacing structures involves mostly Planetary Interaction (PI) level 4 goods. These have been consistently rising in value over the years as more Upwell structures have been released and demand is consistent with some long-term stockpiles being developed by the larger, or at least well-funded, groups. With a recent revamp of the PI user interface, we can assume some people will return to or setup for the first time their new extractor planets as a less painful semi-passive income source.
The value of structures being between 70% to 85% of the total value to build in PI goods we still have some other potential impacts on ore markets for the remainder, but not as likely due to the surplus of ore around the cluster. This said rebuilding the north in short order will need a sizable investment in PI and likely reap the high sec market for several months and or years to recover. This means an investment now, understanding the continued pressure from new Upwell structures and the rebuild of the north should yield a larger than normal return for long-term Investors in the PI level 4 markets.
Additionally, structures need rigs to work efficiently. These rigs are primarily refined salvage regarding manufacturing costs. Here again is a market that has shown consistent pressure and rose over the long-term. A wise investment in specific PI level 4 goods might be worth it or investing in component subclass PI goods and utilizing refining PI setups could yield significant returns even in the next 6 to 12 months. It’s important to note these rise in prices will be demand base and will happen regardless due to new structures being released, but some level of this increase will likely be the effort to rebuild the north in somewhat of an expedited way though it will be hard to track exactly what that effect will be.
This has been ISK Neutral, stay tuned for more market-related news and detailed analysis of upcoming market trends.
Featured image credit: Keacte